Two requests came in hot from Bellingham, Washington, where the superintendent has recommended closing Columbia and Carl Cozier elementaries after 2026-27, four years after voters approved a bond that paid to design their rebuilds. Dave calls it a story of reversed courses and broken promises.

In this episode:

  • The state frame: after McCleary (2012), Washington pays for schools through a prototypical-school formula with a regionalization factor. Bellingham's fell from 12% to 6%. Levies are capped, and there's no cushion for declining enrollment.
  • Technocracy's tiny dials: Elizabeth Popp Berman's Thinking Like an Economist, Colander & Freedman's Where Economics Went Wrong, Anwar Shaikh's Capitalism, and Bruce Baker's School Finance Indicators Database.
  • The reversal: a $122M bond in 2022 to design rebuilds of Roosevelt, Carl Cozier and Columbia and build a 15th elementary. The 15th was paused in 2024, a land deal with the city stalled, and now it's two closures and one rebuild (how we got here).
  • Can they do that? Under RCW 28A.530.020, a board can change what bond money buys after a public hearing. No new vote required.
  • The tours that lit up Facebook: prospective renters, including a private Christian school, toured both buildings; the district says no deal is planned. Dave checks a rumor going around about a board member's family and finds no evidence for it.
  • The numbers: about $2.2M a year in projected savings; a general-fund reserve that halved from $23.3M (2022) to $11.7M (2025); a new district office opened in 2024; a scary staffing graph; and why birth rates don't predict suburban enrollment.

Our take: closing two schools won't fix a state formula problem, and a levy vote is a promise, not a blank check. The district has some apologizing to do, and the board answers to voters. Public hearings: Columbia Nov. 2, Carl Cozier Nov. 3 (details).

Further reading: Bellingham Neighborhood Schools Coalition · Cascadia Daily News · Washington's school-closure hearing law

Music: Carsie Blanton. Art: Soumya Dhulekar. Chip in and join our Discord at budgetcommittee.show. Got a budget worth a closer look? Send us a request.